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Reseach in Motion, a/k/a the Canadian Apple, reports earnings on Thursday, but thats way too long for analysts to wait to talk about the quarter. Theyre already putting out preview notes, and there are a surprising number of enthusiasts.

Sterne Agees Shaw Wu this morning writes that he expects decent quarterly results and not-horrible guidance for the quarters ahead, because its new phones are great, and because wireless carriers want to keep it around as a viable alternative to Google and Apple:

RIMM is due to report its August quarter this Thursday, September 15, 2011, after the close. We anticipate the company to meet or exceed consensus estimates of $4.5 billion in revenue and $0.67 in EPS (we have in-line revenue and 3 cents better EPS) vs. guidance of $4.2-$4.8 billion in revenue and $0.75-$1.05 in EPS.

As we have said in our recent upgrade we have picked up constructive feedback on its new BlackBerries including the Bold 9900 and Torch 9810 that shipped late in the quarter. We believe sales will be driven by upgrades in its large installed base of 55 million users as opposed to switchers. In addition, we believe RIMM benefits from carrier desire to support a viable No. 3 platform to fend off GOOG and AAPL as well as disruption in MMI as it gets integrated into GOOG and NOK as it transitions to Windows Phone 7 from Symbian.

For its outlook, expectations are fairly low with its depressed valuation at 5x CY12 EPS where most anticipate the company to back away from its FY12 EPS guidance of $5.25-$6.00 with consensus estimates already at $5.11. We agree that the company set unrealistically high expectations but based on our supply chain checks, we believe a potential guidedown will be modest. The reason is RIMM is going through arguably the strongest product upgrade cycle it has seen in some time with BB7 OS.

Scotia Capitals George Papageorgiou is even more optimistic about guidance:

We are expecting a much stronger Q3with clear evidence the company can meet its annual EPS goal of between US$5.25 andUS$6.00. We are relatively optimistic on what can be achieved in Q3 for several reasons.These include: (1) launching devices with 225 carriers globally, making this one of if not thelargest launches in history; (2) channel inventory builds; (3) a substantial upgrade cycle; (4)AT&T launching the Bold 9900; and (5), finally, we believe the legal issues plaguingAndroid are a potential boost for RIM in the U.S. and Europe

Morgan Stanley is liking the quarter ahead, too:

We believe FQ3 smartphone guidance should bestrong, as 4 new BB7 devices ship into nearly 200carriers globally, and initial positive reviews coupled withunusually low inventory levels set-up for a strong quarterfor sell-in.

J.P. Morgans Rod Hall, meanwhile, speaks for the pessimists, of which there are still many:

Even thoughwe believe recently launched devices and particularly the 9900 are solid wedoubt that trumps rapidly declining consumer sentiment and potentiallyweaker demand. We are looking for FQ2 smartphone shipments of 11.75mand Playbook shipments of 700k.

FQ3 Smartphone guidance a concern: We are forecasting FQ3smartphone shipments of 15m, +28% Q/Q and +6% Y/Y. We believe thatRIMMs three major countries (the US, the UK and Canada) still accountfor >50% of total shipments. Given increasingly negative consumer datapoints in these countries, we are concerned that FQ3 smartphone shipmentguidance could be weaker than forecast.

RIM shares are down a bit this morning, to $29.60 and theyre down nearly 58% from their high this February.

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