Algorithmic FX Trading : Data: threatening to derail the Algo FX bandwagon?

With Justyn Trenner, Jim OHagan, Yaacov Heidingsfeld and Dmitry
Bourtov.
A supply of granular information such as tick level data is
essential to create sophisticated algorithms. However, most FX
trading venues do not currently provide market data of sufficient
depth, frequency or quality for really advanced modelling. This
raises a number of questions including what efforts banks and
trading platforms should be making to compile more comprehensive
and improved data sets for use in Algorithmic FX applications. Some
interbank platforms already sell historical tick data which can be
utilised for back testing of strategies and research, which is
encouraging. The question remains however, whether a lack of
quality data will rapidly dim the current interest surrounding
Algorithmic trading for FX. To debate the issue we invite: Jim
OHagan, Product Manager, FX Market Data, ICAP, Yaacov Heidingsfeld,
Chief Operating Officer at TraderTools, Justyn Trenner, CEO and
Principal of ClientKnowledge, and Dmitry Bourtov who runs US-based
Solaris Market Neutral Fund.
If one accepts the premise that FX data
is by definition participant-specific with different data sets
being required by both the buy-side and sell-side, what should be
collected in real time? Every tick? Or just levels and aggregated
amounts and what other factors are likely to be involved with
making that decision?
OHagan: All professional market
participants engaged in algo trading from both buy- and sell-side
have an interest in collecting as much quality, granular data as
possible; this is because strategies and models change over time,
and data thats not used today may be required tomorrow. As proof of
best execution becomes an increasingly ubiquitous and rigid
requirement of doing business in FX, algo traders of every type
will need access to highly granular, quality data. Collecting such
data now will enable development of aggregated data sets and time
series later.
Heidingsfeld: Before answering
that question I think one should make an additional participant
distinction; sell side versus buy side. There are many types of
algorithmic trading not all of which will require the same data
sets. However across the board we do not think individual ticks are
necessarily helpful, but that levels with aggregated amounts are
required information. Additional information such as; whether the
market is trending, (ie are the spreads narrowing), are the spreads
shifting, what is the dealable, executable depth of book, through
one or more venues are all equally important as well.
Bourtov: To answer this question
first we need to define what our Algo model is doing. If we are
working on something long term which trades once per hour I dont
think that you need to collect tick by tick data, usually people
use some form of aggregation for such models. On the other hand if
you are working on some sort of market maker strategy with average
trade potential as one or two ticks you need much more detailed
data like tick by tick or even DOM (Depth of market) data. Another
aspect which we need to pay attention to is data collection versus
data used to feed your Algo model. If your model does not require
detailed data today it doesnt mean that you might not need it for
other models tomorrow. So it is better to collect as much detailed
data as possible transforming it to the required granularity to
feed to your model.
Trenner: Looking at this from a
sell-side perspective, there is a clear opportunity to systematize
something that the sell-side has always done: the management of
client flows and risk-taking or lay-off against your view of the
opportunity inherent in the clients flows. That opportunity may be
simply one of aggregation and internalization, or it may be that
you believe you can enhance the opportunity by trading the
information you gain by seeing the flow. Either approach is
predicated on taking a view of the flow as having data value and
the ability to manage your expectations and risk against that. It
is something most do through traders gut feel. I have no doubt it
is something you can do better by collecting every piece of client
trade data accurately time-stamped and analyzing that against every
tradable datapoint in the market. That is a straight data analysis
proposition and so every banks client dataset is intrinsically
unique.
The ability to collect all dealable data
from all venues in a single place using smart order routing
technology is now well established in equity markets where
reference data is also dealable data, equal and accessible by all.
This is not the case in the FX market. Does that mean that
modelling FX algorithms will always be intrinsically different from
modelling equity algorithms?
OHagan: The different regulatory
environments in which the equity and foreign exchange markets
operate essentially dictate the level of transparency in each of
those markets. The equity markets are highly regulated and
transparent; the FX market, on the other hand, needs to account for
execution across a range of venues of varying characteristics. The
data generated from each of these FX trading venues reflects that
venues particular, unique characteristics resulting in the need to
factor in many best execution risk scenarios. Feedback received
from algo traders accustomed to designing programs for the equity
markets, indicates that such models are not transferable to the FX
space. In short, as long as the difference in transparency exists,
modelling for equities and FX will be different.
Heidingsfeld: I think we should
make sure we are all talking about algorithms the same way. We
would define algorithmic trading as any trading where a computer is
making the trade decision and sending out execution instruction to
a venue where the order can be acted upon electronically. Included
would be everything from very basic rules-based trading or smart
order routing all the way up to fully automated pairs trading,
statistical arbitrage, benchmark executions. Given the above set of
premises, I think the answer is clearly yes, FX algorithims will
always be different from those created to trade equities. Volume
based algorithms are less meaningful in the FX world where volume
and price are different for different participants. Different
venues may be quoting different prices at the same time based on
their own order book.
Bourtov: I think in general the
answer is Yes. As far as FX data is different from equity or
futures data based on various statistical benchmarks they might
require different models to handle it. How far they are different
are good questions. If you create something which makes decisions
for the next month or so I dont think that logic in your model
which trades FX will be very much different from an Equity model.
On the other hand really short term stuff is very different. We
also need to pay attention to the fact that the FX market as
opposed to equities is very much distributed and it is hard to make
decisions about real volume traded today versus yesterday. It
creates a lot of problems for the models which used volume for
decision making.
Trenner: Yes, for the reasons
others have noted, the modeling will be different. However, it is
clear that the need to have smart liquidity access and management
(essentially the outbound messaging) fundamentally coupled with
smart market data capture and analysis (the inbound side of the
equation) is key. To this extent, the concepts are not so very
different.
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